NBA Game Predictions

Magic

Away

3-3

Series · G7

3:30 PM ET

22:30 IL

Pistons

Home

Source	Magic Away	Pistons Home	Spread
Model	35.1%	64.9%	-5.5
Market	25.9%	74.1%	-8.5

The market is overvaluing the Pistons, with an 8.5-point spread that's 3 points higher than the projected 5.5, implying a significant home win bias. It suggests the Pistons' actual advantage is more nuanced, with their top performers like Cade Cunningham and Ausar Thompson holding a relatively slim edge over the Magic's core. This discrepancy could make the Magic a more attractive underdog, given Franz Wagner's impressive +3.8 EPM and the series' tightly contested history.

H2H edge -9.2%

Spread -3 ✓

Bet Polymarket ↗ Bet Kalshi ↗

Magic Rotation

Player

MIN

EPM

Paolo Banchero 40.1 +1.64
Desmond Bane 36.4 +1.91
Jalen Suggs 36.3 +1.27
Wendell Carter Jr. 33.6 +1.31
Anthony Black 29.3 -1.08
Franz Wagner 29.2 +3.82
Jamal Cain 18.5 -1.63
Tristan da Silva 17.8 -1.41

Pistons Rotation

Player

MIN

EPM

Cade Cunningham 40.6 +4.22
Tobias Harris 34.6 +2.11
Ausar Thompson 33.6 +2.99
Jalen Duren 30.3 +2.39
Duncan Robinson 29.7 +0.93
Daniss Jenkins 15.8 +0.54
Isaiah Stewart 15.2 -1.97
Javonte Green 14.6 +0.85

Raptors

Away

3-3

Series · G7

7:30 PM ET

02:30 IL

Cavaliers

Home

Source	Raptors Away	Cavaliers Home	Spread
Model	38.8%	61.2%	-4.5
Market	27.7%	72.3%	-8.5

The market is overvaluing the Cavaliers, with an 8.5-point spread that's a full 4 points higher than the model's projection. This discrepancy suggests the Cavaliers' talent advantage, led by Donovan Mitchell's +4.1 EPM, may not be as significant as perceived. Given the closer-than-expected EPM totals and the series being tied 3-3, I think the Raptors can keep it within single digits.

H2H edge -11.1% ⚠️

Spread -4 ✓

Bet Polymarket ↗ Bet Kalshi ↗

Raptors Rotation

Player

MIN

EPM

Scottie Barnes 40.3 +3.24
RJ Barrett 38.2 +1.43
Ja'Kobe Walter 32.2 -0.38
Jamal Shead 30.1 +0.13
Collin Murray-Boyles 28.2 +1.66
Brandon Ingram 27.3 -0.80
Immanuel Quickley 25.5 +1.40
Jakob Poeltl 20.3 +0.79

Cavaliers Rotation

Player

MIN

EPM

James Harden 37.3 +1.43
Donovan Mitchell 35.4 +4.06
Evan Mobley 34.4 +2.05
Jarrett Allen 27.9 +3.64
Dean Wade 24.1 +0.69
Max Strus 22.8 -1.06
Sam Merrill 20.8 +0.76
Lonzo Ball 17.2 -0.37

How these predictions are built

Every number on this page comes from a mathematical model that rates each player using EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus, from dunksandthrees.com) and DARKO (free public metric), multiplies by projected minutes tonight, and drops anyone the NBA's official injury report marks as Out. The team ratings are then fed through a simulator that adds home-court, rest, and travel to produce a fair spread and a home-team win probability.

Backtested on 897 playoff games (11 seasons, 2014-15 → 2024-25) with point-in-time EPM and per-date injury data across all seasons. After a full outlier audit, nested walk-forward threshold validation, and era split, the disciplined signals are: H2H ≥3% edge — +15.2% pooled ROI, 60.9% hit rate (n=233); ATS ≥3pt cover when H2H agrees — +12.4% pooled ROI, 57% hit rate (n=142). Nothing guarantees future results. The H2H edge badge turns green at ≥3% (bet), yellow at ≥10% (skip — model and market are reading this game very differently). Spread badge is green only when the ATS pick and H2H pick agree on the same team.